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Until recently, I thought Snapchat was an app used primarily by tweens and teenagers to send each other silly pictures. No longer. This week, I interviewed Frederic Cumenal, chief executive of Tiffany Co, at a Financial Times luxury summit in San Francisco.直到旋即以前,我还仍然指出Snapchat是一款主要是20几岁和十几岁年轻人用来相互发送到可笑图片的应用软件。现在我仍然这么指出了。上周,我在英国《金融时报》在旧金山主办的一次奢侈品峰会上专访了蒂芙尼(Tiffany Co)首席执行官弗雷德里克科莫纳尔(Frederic Cumenal)。
During our conversation, Cumenal revealed that Tiffany had recently created a sparkly Snapchat “filter” that communicates the dazzle of a diamond to anyone with a mobile phone. It even allows would-be purchasers to virtually “try on” the rings, without ever needing to go into one of those reverentially hushed Tiffany stores.在我们谈话期间,科莫纳尔透漏,蒂芙尼最近研发了一款闪闪发光的Snapchat“过滤器”,把钻石的璀璨光芒传送到任何享有手机的人。它甚至容许潜在购买者虚拟世界“试戴”戒指,而不必须转入那些安静得令人惶恐不安的蒂芙尼门店。Is this a good idea? That is the big question — actually, the $222bn question, if we go by the sector’s annual sales — hanging over the luxury goods world today. One of the reasons companies such as Tiffany are creating Snapchat filters is that they are keen to catch the cyber buzz — and appeal to “millennials”.这是个好主意吗?这是个大问题,实质上,是一个价值2220亿美元的问题——如果我们根据如今奢侈品行业的年销售额计算出来的话。
蒂芙尼等公司创立Snapchat过滤器的一个原因在于,它们期望在网上引起热议,更有“千禧一代”。Another factor is that the luxury sector is under pressure to do something — anything — to persuade sceptical investors that it can continue to grow, because, right now, it seems to be at an inflection point. In the decade leading up to the financial crisis of 2007-08, rich consumers in the west gobbled up luxury goods amid the credit boom. Then, when the slowdown hit, cash-rich consumers in places such as China, Russia and Brazil jumped in to provide a new source of demand.另一个原因是奢侈品行业于是以面对压力,拒绝他们有所作为(任何行动),劝说所持猜测态度的投资者:该行业需要之后发展壮大,因为目前它或许正处于一个拐点。在2007年至2008年全球金融危机之前的10年里,西方富裕消费者在信贷热潮期间大量购入奢侈品。
后来,当经济上升经常出现时,中国、俄罗斯和巴西等国现金丰沛的消费者转入市场,带给新的市场需求来源。Now those emerging market countries are in the doldrums, and an anti-corruption drive in China has halted jewellery sales. Meanwhile, demand in Europe remains weak, and even in the US, which is supposed to be recovering, the picture is far from buoyant. Little wonder, then, that the share price of Tiffany (like many luxury goods companies) has tumbled by almost one-third in the past year.如今,这些新兴市场国家正处于低潮,同时中国的反腐败运动遏止了珠宝销售。与此同时,欧洲市场需求依然不振,甚至在理所当然正处于衰退阶段的美国,前景也远非光明。
不该过去一年蒂芙尼的股价(与很多奢侈品公司一样)下跌将近三分之一。People such as Cumenal argue that this partly reflects the vagaries of the business cycle. But what is really interesting for sociologists and anthropologists — albeit more worrying for those luxury executives — is that consumer habits in the west could be undergoing an even bigger structural change. In the 20th century, it was taken for granted that when rich people wanted to “enjoy” their wealth and display status, they acquired expensive goods such as houses, cars, art — and diamonds. But according to Sarah Quinlan, a MasterCard executive who analyses vast reams of spending data each month, there has recently been a shift in terms of how wealthy and not-so-wealthy people are spending money.科莫纳尔等人指出,这在一定程度上体现出有商业周期的变幻莫测。
但对于社会学家和人类学家而言,确实有意思(不过对于那些奢侈品高管而言这点更加令人担忧)的一点在于,西方的消费习惯有可能在经历更加根本性的结构性变革。在20世纪,人们想当然地指出,当富人期望“享用”他们的财富并夸耀其地位时,他们不会出售便宜商品,例如房产、汽车、艺术品和钻石。
但据万事达(MasterCard)高管、每月分析大量消费数据的萨拉昆兰(Sarah Quinlan)称之为,富人以及不那么富裕的人士的消费方式近年经常出现了变化。These days, overall consumer spending is growing (albeit more among the rich than the poor). This growth is occurring almost entirely in services such as restaurants, hotels, travel and holidays, not just in the middle market but in the luxury sector too. “One thing that comes out of these great recessions is that we like our friends and families again — we prize spending time with them,” Quinlan says. “The majority of [the growth] in spending is going to travel and leisure, not goods.” Or, as a report by Deloitte consultants notes: “All consumers, but especially millennials, value experiences...spend by people travelling accounts for 40 per cent of the personal luxury markets.”如今,整体消费开支在快速增长(尽管富人消费增幅多达穷人)。这种快速增长完全全部经常出现在餐厅、酒店、旅游和渡假等服务业方面,某种程度在中档市场,在高端市场也是如此。
“近年的大衰落带给一个现象,那就是我们再度爱人我们的朋友和家人,爱护与他们一起的时光,”昆兰回应,“大部分消费(快速增长)来自旅游和休闲娱乐,而非商品。”或者,正如德勤(Deloitte)咨询顾问们编写的报告所认为的那样,“所有的消费者,尤其是千禧一代,推崇体验……旅游消费占到个人奢侈品市场的40%。”According to Quinlan, this shift can be explained by changes in lifestyles and values: today’s millennials often live in cities, not suburbs, so have less physical space in which to store “stuff”; they also prize concepts such as “sustainability” and “community”.据昆兰称之为,生活方式和价值观的变化需要说明这种变化:如今的千禧一代往往生活在城市,而非郊区,因此没那么多可以存储“东西”的物理空间;他们还推崇“可持续发展”和“社区”等概念。...……I suspect there is another factor too: in the cyber age, physical goods simply do not feel very “exclusive” any more. Think once again about those diamonds. Fifty years ago, a scruffy teenager couldn’t wander into a jewellery store and try on a diamond ring; indeed, 100 years ago, poor people barely knew what the rich were wearing. But the internet has democratised the view: anyone can now “see” luxury goods and buy them online.我指出还有一个因素:在网络时代,实物商品仍然让人感觉十分“专属”。
再行看看那些钻石吧。50年前,一个衣衫不整的年轻人是无法摆摊珠宝店和试戴钻石戒指的;的确,100年前,穷人显然不告诉富人穿什么。但互联网拓宽了每个人的视野:任何人现在都能“亲眼见到”奢侈品并在线出售。
What remains more exclusive are “experiences”, precisely because these cannot be commoditised online. One of the most powerful forms of conspicuous consumption today is not the accumulation of goods but the accumulation of memories — and stories. These are precious because they cannot be replicated.依然较为专属的是“体验”,这才是是因为这些无法在网上商品化。如今,最强有力的炫耀性消费形式之一不是商品的积累,而是回想(和故事)的积累。
它们之所以贵重是因为它们无法被拷贝。That does not mean that people will stop buying diamonds. But it does mean that luxury goods companies are being advised to mix experiences with goods to create prestige. Don’t just put diamonds on Snapchat; offer rich clients the chance to meet the master craftsman too.这并不意味著人们会再行出售钻石。
但它显然意味著奢侈品公司于是以被建议将体验与商品混合在一起来创立显要声望。不要只是在Snapchat上晒钻石了;还要向富裕客户获取与手工艺大师见面的机会。To put it another way, the more that our lives are hijacked by robots and cyber links, the more valuable the individual — human — touch starts to become. It is a striking reminder of just how arbitrary our ideas of “value” — and luxury — really are. And perhaps a reason for cheer.换句话说,我们的生活被机器人和网络链接操控得越多,个人(人类)风格也就开始显得就越最重要。
这有力地警告我们,我们对于“价值”(和奢侈品)的观点实质上是多么不合理。也许这是一个有一点拍手称快的理由。
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